Political Sociology of the Crisis: Social Uprisings, Semi-Patrimonial States, and the Exhaustion of the Neoliberal and Post-Neoliberal Consensus in Latin America

Abstract

The recent cycle of social uprisings in Latin America, notably in Chile (2019) and Colombia (2021) (Aguilera et al., 2022; Álvarez-Rodríguez, 2022; Somma et al., 2024), reveals a profound crisis of legitimacy that transcends consolidated electoral democracies. This article argues that these "urban revolts" represent not only the failure of the neoliberal consensus—which was incapable of fulfilling its promise of welfare and instead generated structural inequality (Jiménez-Yañez, 2020)—but also the exhaustion of the post-neoliberal cycle, which likewise failed to achieve deep institutional reforms. As a result, social demands have shifted from formal political rights to an insistence on substantive social rights, articulated under the concept of "dignity" (Paredes P., 2021). We contend that this chronic inability to process welfare demands is not cyclical but endemic, resulting from the persistence of "semi-patrimonial states" that sustain "durable low-quality democracies" (Munck, 2024). Through a qualitative documentary analysis methodology, this study examines how this structural statehood deficit manifests on two levels: 1) a low bureaucratic capacity to implement universal welfare policies, reducing social policy to a "politics of waiting" (Bustos, 2024; Cena & Dettano, 2023; Ríos y Molina, 2024); and 2) an active political blockade derived from the "new polarization" (Sarsfield et al., 2024) and the consolidation of "authoritarian neoliberalism" (Cesarino, 2021), which prioritizes "biopolitical control" (Ramírez Sánchez et al., 2022) over democratic responsiveness (Franco Murillo et al., 2022). The failure of the Chilean constitutional process (2019-2023) is used as a paradigmatic case (Toro Maureira et al., 2024; Negretto et al., 2022), demonstrating how the "drift of the political system" (Toro Maureira et al., 2024) prevented the translation of social demands into a new pact, concluding that the regional crisis is, fundamentally, a crisis of statehood.The recent cycle of social uprisings in Latin America, notably in Chile (2019) and Colombia (2021) (Aguilera et al., 2022; Álvarez-Rodríguez, 2022; Somma et al., 2024), reveals a profound crisis of legitimacy that transcends consolidated electoral democracies. This article argues that these "urban revolts" represent not only the failure of the neoliberal consensus—which was incapable of fulfilling its promise of welfare and instead generated structural inequality (Jiménez-Yañez, 2020)—but also the exhaustion of the post-neoliberal cycle, which likewise failed to achieve deep institutional reforms. As a result, social demands have shifted from formal political rights to an insistence on substantive social rights, articulated under the concept of "dignity" (Paredes P., 2021). We contend that this chronic inability to process welfare demands is not cyclical but endemic, resulting from the persistence of "semi-patrimonial states" that sustain "durable low-quality democracies" (Munck, 2024). Through a qualitative documentary analysis methodology, this study examines how this structural statehood deficit manifests on two levels: 1) a low bureaucratic capacity to implement universal welfare policies, reducing social policy to a "politics of waiting" (Bustos, 2024; Cena & Dettano, 2023; Ríos y Molina, 2024); and 2) an active political blockade derived from the "new polarization" (Sarsfield et al., 2024) and the consolidation of "authoritarian neoliberalism" (Cesarino, 2021), which prioritizes "biopolitical control" (Ramírez Sánchez et al., 2022) over democratic responsiveness (Franco Murillo et al., 2022). The failure of the Chilean constitutional process (2019-2023) is used as a paradigmatic case (Toro Maureira et al., 2024; Negretto et al., 2022), demonstrating how the "drift of the political system" (Toro Maureira et al., 2024) prevented the translation of social demands into a new pact, concluding that the regional crisis is, fundamentally, a crisis of statehood.